The gamble of religion
Posted in philosophy & religion on February 23rd, 2010 by Deon Barnard – Be the first to comment
The point of this article is to highlight how billions of otherwise rational people gamble on insane odds in the area of their religious ‘faith’. Many religious people tell me that Atheists are making the gamble, because if they (Christians for instance) are wrong they ‘lose nothing’, but if we (Atheists) are wrong we ‘go to Hell’. I was a Christian, the convicted deeply sure kind – missionary, pastor – the works. I can tell every Christian that if they’re wrong (and I know they are), not only do they lose an incredible amount in terms of wasted time and personal resources, but they are accountable to humanity for terrible atrocities and ubiquitous control and manipulation of populations. If Atheists are wrong they bring a strong argument to a ‘loving God’ that they had no reason to believe and surely would not be punished for eternity for being reasonable. Let’s talk about that ‘reason’ not to believe…
Because this article is about probability and reasonable evidence I will use a casino metaphor. We’ll call it the ‘Casino Argument’. All over the world hundreds of thousands of people play slot machines at casinos. I don’t personally play because the probabilities of winning are so remote that I’d have a better chance of coming across that money by working hard, which is also more enjoyable to me than sitting on a stool and pressing a button for hours on end. Nevertheless, people keep doing it. They ‘believe’ they have a chance of winning because they have evidence that others have won – i.e. it is possible. There may be a one in a million chance of winning – insanely improbable odds – but those odds are backed by the fact that real people actually do win. We can get their addresses and verify their winnings with a bank statement or casino records. We have tangible evidence that million-dollar-winners actually exist in the world.
Now let’s say there was absolutely no evidence that anybody ever won at a particular casino. For years there was never an officially announced winner and the casino had no records of such a thing ever happening. No winner was ever published in a newspaper or announced on the TV. No-one had ever SEEN a winner. Would people keep going to that casino with one-in-a-million odds against them and no knowledge of their ever having been a winner? Probably not. A rational person, even a rational gambler, would find a casino where there was some evidence to back his faith in the machine.
But what if rumors started to circulate that a guy called ‘Moses’ (a popular South African name) had won a million dollars, but that he chose to keep it a secret and forbade the newspapers from publishing the story, and the casino conveniently ‘lost’ the records. On top of that Moses had no surname and no-one knew where he lived or how to find him. Would the ‘Moses Myth’ add weight to their belief in a win? For some it would, but for most it would make more sense to go to a casino where real people, rather than myths, won real money from time to time.
Now back to religion. The average human is not entirely stupid in my view – if I thought they were I wouldn’t bother writing these articles. On the contrary I see people making logical decisions every day. When people make decisions about moving home or personal finances or career plans etc. they use logic and reason. They weigh up the facts and go for the option that makes more logical sense. At times two options have the same weight and then they either go with feeling or preference or seek advice from someone who might tip the scales one way or another.
Why is religion exempt from this rational approach? Why do we believe ‘Moses Myths’ when there is an overwhelming amount of evidence to the contrary? Why do we hold onto something with insane odds when the odds presented by science and reason are almost undeniable? I think the reasons are similar to that of another great illogicality – love. They say love is blind and it usually is. Millions of people fall out of love every day and yet when they fall in love again they forget all the lessons learned from the previous round of insanity. Why? Because it feels good! Because we don’t want to be alone. Because we want to be acceptable and accepted. Because we need someone else to give us a reason.
Just because the benefits of feeling in love doesn’t make a ‘happily ever after’ true – so the benefits of religion (feeling good; communal acceptance; people to do things with during the week; feeling right or justified; something to stand for; etc.) don’t make the myth true. While religious people harp on about the ‘good’ that religions do for the world, they refuse to recognize how pervasively sinister the whole thing is, and more importantly, how they personally contribute to the insanity of war, death, bondage, manipulation and mind control from the warmth and safety of their prayer meetings, worship sessions and church family fêtes.
Many religious people will get personally offended by this article because, in their minds, religion, or certainly their own religion, is above reproach, question or analysis – it is simply true and requires no reasonable evidence! I do have hope however that some rational religious people, if that is in fact possible, will respond with probabilities and evidence to back up their belief and follow the rules of rational discussion they would use for any other topic.
There’s a cheesy but true cliché that goes, “If you don’t believe in yourself, nobody else will”. I have spent my entire life overcoming my inadequacies with self belief. Growing up as a child I had really bad acne – the kind that had other kids making jokes about the first moon on the man. I also had rounded shoulders from a scoliosis of the spine, snowy dandruff, no detectable biceps and I really sucked at ball sports like soccer, cricket and rugby, which had me aimlessly running around the field, missing passes and goals. I was always delighted when I got a glancing touch on the ball – even if I was just an obstacle in the way of a cannon-like boot from a team mate.
The Christian Bible has a scripture that goes, “You shall know the truth, and the truth will set you free”.
